Poll Shows TN Governor’s Race A Dead Heat
Submitted by Jerri Green for Governor
October 20, 2026, 4:49 p.m.
NASHVILLE, TN — A new independent statewide survey of likely Tennessee voters conducted October 13–16 reveals an explosive shift in the race for governor, showing Democrat Jerri Green locked in a statistical dead heat with Republican Marsha Blackburn.
The poll of 873 likely voters (with a margin of error of +/- 3.3%) places Marsha Blackburn at 36% and Jerri Green right behind at 34%, with independent candidate David Hatley at 19% and 11% still undecided. With only a 2-point spread between the major candidates, the race sits squarely inside the margin of error.
Notably, this independent poll was heavily weighted toward Republicans, making this surge into a virtual tie an undeniable sign of a powerful and growing movement backing Green. This trajectory reflects a clear trend seen in other recent polling where Marsha Blackburn continues to lose support as Green holds strong and continues to make massive gains among both Democrats and Independents, including a previous poll showing a jump for Green of four points within just a matter of weeks. The data shows that Jerri is holding the strongest, unified support within her own party.
When looking strictly at the two major-party candidates, the data demonstrates a tight head-to-head race where Green has closed the gap almost entirely. Furthermore, the survey exposes deep vulnerabilities for Blackburn: 53% of likely Tennessee voters view her unfavorably, meaning a clear majority disapprove of the career politician’s record.
This independent poll proves what we are seeing on the ground, even in a survey heavily weighted against us: voters are rejecting Marsha Blackburn's record and embracing a candidate with a plan to improve life for everyday Tennesseans," said a spokesperson with the campaign. "Nobody can call this an impossible race anymore. Tennessee is a true battleground. While Blackburn is underwater with a majority of Tennesseans, our message focused on working families, public schools, and lowering the cost of living is resonating. This is a dead heat, and victory is well within our reach. |
Key Takeaways:
• Head-to-Head Momentum: With only a 2-point spread between Blackburn (36%) and Green (34%), the race sits squarely inside the margin of error.
• The Moderate Split: Among moderate voters, Green completely dominates the ballot with 65%, while Blackburn pulls just 6%.
• Women Voters: Jerri Green leads Blackburn 38% to 34% among women voters statewide.
• Geographic Strength: Green leads outright in the Memphis media market (39% to 35%) and is running dead-even in Nashville and Knoxville.
About Jerri Green:
Jerri Green is a mom of three, Memphis City Councilwoman, and Chief Public Defender in Shelby County. A lifelong Tennessean raised in Memphis, educated in Knoxville, and rooted in Nashville, Jerri has dedicated her career to fighting for everyday people. As a proven public servant, she has championed the erasure of $17 million in medical debt for Memphians, secured living wages for public employees, and made history as the first woman to win the Democratic nomination for governor in Tennessee. She centers her campaign on fully funding public education, expanding healthcare access, protecting our natural resources, and getting corruption out of politics.
